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diff --git a/scripts/analyze-p74.py b/scripts/analyze-p74.py
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+#!/usr/bin/env python3
+"""P74（启动开场过渡：水墨式渐显）证据分析：真实 xvfb 录启动 0-3 秒序列抽帧。
+
+判据（读真实实跑日志 + 逐帧像素统计）：
+  1. 日志含 5 行 `p74-shot=p74-splash-<frame> inkStrength=<v>`，帧号递增 {8,30,60,100,140}。
+  2. inkStrength 随帧非增，且在 dissolveFrames(96) 后为 0（墨幕确实在消散）。
+  3. 抽帧 PNG：1280x720、非空白（std>=6）、无 24x24 纯黑块（标题/屋脊的纯白属预期，仅报告不判失败）。
+  4. 动画在变：任意两帧 pixel diff > 0（且首末帧 diff 显著）。
+  5. 画面「是否好看/水墨味」的 vision 复核由 Hermes 侧完成，非本脚本判据。
+
+Usage: python3 scripts/analyze-p74.py <record-dir> <out-txt>
+Exit 0 pass / 1 fail / 2 usage.
+"""
+
+import itertools
+import re
+import sys
+from pathlib import Path
+
+import numpy as np
+from PIL import Image
+
+SHOT_RE = re.compile(r"^p74-shot=p74-splash-(\d+) inkStrength=([\d.]+)$", re.MULTILINE)
+EXPECTED = [8, 30, 60, 100, 140]
+DARK_SIDE = 24
+DARK_MAX = 8
+WHITE_SIDE = 64
+WHITE_MIN = 250
+
+
+def max_block(rgba, side, predicate):
+    h, w = rgba.shape[0], rgba.shape[1]
+    if h < side or w < side:
+        return 0
+    mask = predicate(rgba).astype(np.int64)
+    integral = np.zeros((h + 1, w + 1), dtype=np.int64)
+    integral[1:, 1:] = mask.cumsum(axis=0).cumsum(axis=1)
+    best = 0
+    for y in range(0, h - side + 1):
+        for x in range(0, w - side + 1):
+            total = (
+                integral[y + side, x + side]
+                - integral[y, x + side]
+                - integral[y + side, x]
+                + integral[y, x]
+            )
+            best = max(best, int(total))
+    return best
+
+
+def main():
+    if len(sys.argv) != 3:
+        print(__doc__)
+        return 2
+    rec = Path(sys.argv[1])
+    out = Path(sys.argv[2])
+    log = (rec / "log.txt").read_text(encoding="utf-8", errors="replace")
+    failures = []
+    lines = [
+        "P74（启动开场过渡：水墨式渐显）证据分析 — 真实 Desktop xvfb 1280x720",
+        "钩子：LV_P74_SHOT=1（60Hz 固定步进，splash 帧表 8/30/60/100/140 各一帧）",
+        "路径：splashFrame → InkReveal.inkStrength/dabs（预乘墨滴）→ 露出天色/水面/屋脊/标题",
+        "",
+    ]
+
+    shots = [(int(m.group(1)), float(m.group(2))) for m in SHOT_RE.finditer(log)]
+    got = [f for f, _ in shots]
+    lines.append("log shots: " + ", ".join(f"{f}(ink={v:.3f})" for f, v in shots))
+    if got != EXPECTED:
+        failures.append(f"log frames {got} != expected {EXPECTED}")
+    strengths = [v for _, v in shots]
+    if strengths != sorted(strengths, reverse=True):
+        failures.append("inkStrength is not non-increasing across frames")
+    if not all(v == 0.0 for f, v in shots if f >= 96):
+        failures.append("inkStrength is not 0 after dissolveFrames (96)")
+    lines.append("")
+
+    stats = {}
+    for frame in EXPECTED:
+        path = rec / f"p74-splash-{frame:03d}.png"
+        if not path.exists():
+            failures.append(f"missing frame {path.name}")
+            continue
+        rgba = np.asarray(Image.open(path).convert("RGBA"), dtype=np.uint8)
+        rgb = rgba[:, :, :3].astype(np.float64)
+        h, w = rgb.shape[0], rgb.shape[1]
+        brightness = float(rgb.mean())
+        std = float(rgb.std())
+        dark = max_block(
+            rgba, DARK_SIDE,
+            lambda a: (a[:, :, 0] <= DARK_MAX) & (a[:, :, 1] <= DARK_MAX) & (a[:, :, 2] <= DARK_MAX) & (a[:, :, 3] >= 250),
+        )
+        white = max_block(
+            rgba, WHITE_SIDE,
+            lambda a: (a[:, :, 0] >= WHITE_MIN) & (a[:, :, 1] >= WHITE_MIN) & (a[:, :, 2] >= WHITE_MIN) & (a[:, :, 3] >= 250),
+        )
+        stats[frame] = {"brightness": brightness, "std": std}
+        lines.append(f"p74-splash-{frame:03d}.png: size={w}x{h} brightness={brightness:.1f} std={std:.1f} dark_block={dark} white_block={white}")
+        if (w, h) != (1280, 720):
+            failures.append(f"{path.name} size {w}x{h} != 1280x720")
+        if std < 6.0:
+            failures.append(f"{path.name} looks blank (std={std:.1f})")
+        if dark > 0:
+            failures.append(f"{path.name} has {DARK_SIDE}x{DARK_SIDE} pure-black block")
+    lines.append("")
+
+    have = [f for f in EXPECTED if f in stats]
+    for a, b in itertools.combinations(have, 2):
+        ia = np.asarray(Image.open(rec / f"p74-splash-{a:03d}.png").convert("RGB"), dtype=np.int16)
+        ib = np.asarray(Image.open(rec / f"p74-splash-{b:03d}.png").convert("RGB"), dtype=np.int16)
+        differing = int((np.abs(ia - ib).sum(axis=2) > 0).sum())
+        lines.append(f"diff frame {a:03d} vs {b:03d}: differing_pixels={differing}")
+        if differing == 0:
+            failures.append(f"frame {a} identical to {b}")
+
+    lines.append("")
+    if failures:
+        lines.append("verdict=FAIL")
+        for f in failures:
+            lines.append("  - " + f)
+    else:
+        lines.append("verdict=PASS")
+        lines.append("  ink strength decays to 0 across the captured frames; frames render 1280x720,")
+        lines.append("  no big black blocks, and every pair differs (the opening transition animates).")
+    out.parent.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
+    out.write_text("\n".join(lines) + "\n", encoding="utf-8")
+    print(f"wrote {out} verdict={'FAIL' if failures else 'PASS'}")
+    return 1 if failures else 0
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    sys.exit(main())